Undang-undang yang memberikan rekonsiliasi menurut hukum II dan V dari resolusi terhadap anggaran tahun pajak 2018, yang awalnya dicetuskan dalam Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat sebagai Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, adalah undang-undang Kongres untuk memperbarui Kode Internal Revenue Code tahun 1986, yang mengubah-ubah tarif pajak orang pribadi maupun usaha. Ini merupakan perubahan pajak yang besar, dianjurkan oleh para kongres Republikan dan administrasi Trump. Unsur utamanya antara lain adalah mengurangi tarif pajak orang pribadi maupun usaha; meningkatkan pengurangan standar pajak dan kredit pajak keluarga; membatasi pengurangan bunga KPR dan pengurangan bagi pajak penghasilan negara bagian dan lokal serta pajak bangunan; membatasi Pajak Minimum Alternatif bagi orang pribadi dan membatalkannya bagi badan; mengurangi jumlah rumah yang terkena pajak bumi; dan mencabut mandat orang pribadi dari Affordable Care Act (ACA).

Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yang tak berpihak melaporkan bahwa di bawah undang-undang tersebut, orang-orang pribadi dan entitas-entitas pass-through seperti perseroan dan S Corporation akan mendapatkan sekiranya $1.125 miliar benefit bersih (yaitu, potongan pajak bersih yang di-offset dengan subsidi layanan kesehatan yang telah dikurangi) selama sepuluh tahun, sementara perusahaan akan menerima sekiranya $320 miliar benefit. Pemotongan pajak orang pribadi dan entitas pass-through berkurang seiring waktu dan terjadilah kenaikan pajak bersih yang dimulai pada tahun 2027, sementara pemotongan pajak perusahaan bersifat permanen. Ini memberikan ruang bagi Senat untuk meloloskan undang-undang tersebut dengan hanya 51 suara, tanpa perlu melawan filibuster, di bawah proses rekonsiliasi anggaran.

CBO memperkirakan bahwa menerapkan undang-undang tersebut akan menambah sekiranya $1,455 triliun ke hutang negara selama sepuluh tahun, atau sekitar $1,0 triliun setelah efek makroekonomi feedback, sebagai tambahan dari ramalan kenaikan $10 triliun di bawah batasan kebijakan saat ini dan hutang negara saat ini sejumlah $20 triliun. Joint Committee on Taxation yang tak berpihak mengestimasikan bahwa tingal PDB akan lebih tinggi 0,8%, tingkat kerja akan lebih tinggi 0,6%, dan tingkat konsumsi personal akan lebih tinggi 0,6% selama periode 2018-2027 pada hitungan rata-rata karena undang-undang tersebut. Ini adalah tingkat yang lebih tinggi, bukan taraf pertumbuhan tahunan yang lebih tinggi, maka ini secara relatif adalah dampak minor ekonomi selama sepuluh tahun.

Penyebaran dampak dari versi akhir undang-undang tersebut berdasarkan kategori penghasilan peribadi secara signifikan beragam, menurut asumsi dan titik waktu yang telah dipertimbangkan. Umumnya, kategori usaha dan kategori penghasilan tinggi sebagian besar akan mendapatkan benefit, bagaimana pun itu, sementara kategori penghasilan rendah akan mendapatkan benefit yang kian berkurang seiring waktu atau terkena dampak buruk. Contohnya, Joint Committee on Taxation mengestimasi bahwa:

  • Selama tahun 2019, masing-masing kategori penghasilan akan menerima potongan pajak (yaitu taraf pajak rata-rata yang lebih rendah) tergantung pada hukum yang berlaku.
  • Namun, di tahun 2021 kategori-kategori penghasilan $10.000-30.000 (24% wajib pajak) akan membayar jumlah pajak yang lebih banyak (taraf pajak rata-rata yang lebih tinggi).
  • Di tahun 2023 dan 2025, kategori-kategori penghasilan $0-30.000 (34% wajib pajak) akan membayar jumlah pajak yang lebih banyak, sementara yang berpenghasilan $30.000-$40.000 (9% wajib pajak) akan membayar jumlah yang sama.
  • Di tahun 2027, kategori penghasilan di bawah $75.000 (65% wajibpajak) akan membayar jumlah pajak yang lebih banyak, sementara pemotongan akan tetap dilakukan untuk mereka yang berpenghasilan $75.000.

Tax Policy Center (TPC) memperkirakan 72% wajib pajak akan terkena dampak buruk di tahun 2019 dan seterusnya, jika potongan pajak dibayarkan berdasarkan pemotongan pengeluaran yang terpisah dari legislasi, karena kebanyakan pemotongan pengeluaran akan mempengaruhi wajib pajak berpenghasilan rendah dan menengah dan benefit dari pemotongan pajak tersebut pun menjadi tidak setimpal. TPC juga mengestimasi bahwa bagian bawah dari 80% wajib pajak (yang berpenghasilan di bawah $149.400) akan menerima 35% benefit di tahun 2018, 34% di tahun 2025, dan nihil di tahun 2027, dengan kondisi di mana beberapa kategori memikul biaya.

Versi akhir dari undang-undang ini juga mempengaruhi layanan kesehatan dengan mencabut mandat individu ACA, dengan jumlah orang yang lebih rendah hingga 13 juta dengan asuransi kesehatan dan premi asuransi yang lebih tinggi pada bursa ACA. Congressional Budget Office melaporkan bahwa peningkatan defisit sebesar $1,4 triliun di undang-undang Senat dapat memicu penurunan pengeluaran secara otomatis dalam kategori khusus hingga $150 miliar per tahun selama sepuluh tahun ke depan, termasuk $25 miliar dalam Medicare. Ini dikarenakan Undang-Undang hukum Pay-as-You-Go (PAYGO). Senat membutuhkan 60 suara untuk melepaskan persyaratan PAYGO, yang berarti Republikan dan Demokrat juga akan wajib setuju untuk melepaskan peraturan tersebut. Jika peraturan PAYGO tidak dapat dilepaskan, pemotongan pengeluaran ini akan secara otomatis diterapkan.

Kritik media, lembaga think tank, dan academia membantah undang-undang ini dari segi dampak buruknya (seperti defisit anggaran yang lebih tinggi, defisit perdagangan yang lebih tinggi, ketidaksetaraan penghasilan yang lebih buruk, dan biaya layanan kesehatan yang lebih tinggi) dan kesalahan dalam interpretasi yang terjadi. Ini berada di antara undang-undang utama yang tidak begitu populer di sejarah AS, dengan sekitar 32% persetujuan, hampir semuanya dari Republikan.

DPR meloloskan undang-undang final tersebut pada 19 Desember 2017, meskipun untuk tujuan prosedur, pengambilan ulang suara akan diadakan. Senat meloloskan versi akhirnya pada tanggal 20 Desember dalam jumlah 51-48 suara, dan versi akhir tersebut diloloskan oleh DPR, juga pada tanggal 20 Desember 2017. Undang-undang ini kemudian akan diberikan kepada Presiden untuk disahkan menjadi hukum legal.

 

 

 

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